担心Netflix烧钱太多?2大理由告诉你“你多虑了”!

发布时间: 2019-08-31 来源: 新浪财经综合 栏目: 美股新闻 点击:

过去5年,Netflix(NFLX)在原创内容和市场营销方面投资越来越多,导致该公司越来越“烧钱”。该公司CFO预计今年...

美股100分时图 美股100分时图

过去5年,Netflix(NFLX)在原创内容和市场营销方面投资越来越多,导致该公司越来越“烧钱”。该公司CFO预计今年自由现金流为-35亿美元。为了维持“烧钱”,Netflix借更多的债,最近就发行了20亿美元债券。

Netflix越来越“烧钱”,债务融资越来越多,一直是很多投资者的心病。特别是考虑到该公司的原创内容策略是在牛市期间进行的。

但是有几大利好因素,能够让投资者停止对Netflix“烧钱”的担忧。

1. Netflix随时可以“逆风翻盘”,将现金流转正Netflix预计今年现金流为-35亿美元。该公司增加了在原创内容上的支出,增加30亿美元至150亿美元。资本支出的85%都用到了原创计划上。如果Netflix将对原创内容的预算保持稳定不变的话,其现金流赤字就会不到10亿美元。尽管对原创内容的支出是Netflix现金流为负的最主要因素,对营销方面的支出提升也是原因之一。

过去4个季度,该公司在营销上面花费了25亿美元。如果将营收预算削减至2017年水平,也就是13亿美元的话,在加上在内容原创计划上的支出保持不变的话,那麽Netflix的现金流马上就转为正的了。需要注意的是,如果不在内容和营销支出上加码的话,Netflix的用户增长和营收增长不会这么快?;毓斯?,我们发现Netflix在内容和营销上花钱,保证了营收和用户的增长。这个投资效率还是很高的,也说明了Netflix距离现金流转正比财报显示得要近得多。

2. Netflix对经济衰退“免疫”因为Netflix靠举债刺激增长,所以我们要知道,Netflix受益于这一轮牛市,以及如果经济陷入衰退会怎样。超过70%的经济学家都预计在2021年之前会发生经济衰退。经济衰退可能会导致利率上升,从而导致Netflix的借贷成本上升。

经济衰退也可能意味著订阅用户增长放缓,消费者不愿在非必需品上花钱。但是,我们认为利率升高对Netflix投资者来说,并不需要怎麽担心。如上所述,Netflix对“烧钱”的掌控余地比数据显示得要大得多。如果利率上升的话,Netflix大可以减少借款,或者寻求其他筹集资金的方式。那些认为经济衰退可能会对Netflix的增长产生负面影响的想法似乎有点牵强。与付费电视相比,Netflix提供的服务相对便宜。现在美国仍然有9000万家庭使用付费电视,而美国Netflix付费用户只有6000万。所以,消费者更有可能取消付费电视,转向Netflix来省钱,而不是取消Netflix会员。此外,Netflix正日益成为一家国际化公司。该公司一半以上的收入来自于国际市场。国际市场付费用户增长速度远远快于美国国内市场,而且这种趋势很可能会继续。这也意味著Netflix可以在面对美国经济衰退时,将原创内容支出和债务融资转向国际市场。展望未来,Netflix预计内容支出增长将放缓,这将有助于现金流回归正值,使得那些对于利率上升的担忧站不住脚。因此,投资者不应过分担心Netflix的“烧钱”问题。

本文标题: 担心Netflix烧钱太多?2大理由告诉你“你多虑了”!
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