观点:当全球经济衰退来临 受冲击更大的是美国的银行

发布时间: 2019-08-26 来源: 新浪美股 栏目: 美股新闻 点击:

当经济衰退来临时,受影响更大的是美国银行,而不是欧洲银行。新浪美股北京时间8月26日讯,全球经济前景的疲软给银行带来了麻...

当经济衰退来临时,受影响更大的是美国银行,而不是欧洲银行。

新浪美股 北京时间8月26日讯,全球经济前景的疲软给银行带来了麻烦——甚至比投资者认为的似乎还要多。多年来低于目标的通货膨胀率已经将利率保持在前所未有的低水平,侵蚀了银行的核心运营模式。增长乏力和长期的不确定性——从英国退欧到国际贸易形势——削弱了借贷和投资的兴趣。

一段时间以来,欧洲活跃在全球的银行一直面临着令人不快的环境。相反,它们在华尔街的主要竞争对手多年来一直表现优异,股价接近创纪录水平。但事实是,这些并不会让美国的银行对经济低迷更具免疫力。

全球银行都正面临多重威胁。净息差(借款成本与贷款收费之间的差额)已被削减。各国央行将进一步降息,在某些情况下,降息幅度将进一步扩大至负值,从而加剧利差挤压。将负利率转嫁给企业和富裕的私人客户,起到了部分抵消作用,但没有迹象表明,负利率能够扩大到庞大的零售存款基础。

当贷款利率受到挤压时,投行业务往往是利润的支柱,但现在也开始受到冲击。股票部门正面临长期威胁,因为公司对上市的成本和繁杂望而却步,而私人股本资金的替代供应也在迅速膨胀。在这个不断增长的私人股本领域,存在着许多机遇,但它们很可能比传统的股票买卖业务规模小得多、难度也大得多。

在经历了多年的繁荣之后,股市和固定收益市场的周期性衰退正在逼近。这是一个十分迅猛且严重的问题。人们普遍预计,首次公开发行(IPO)和并购活动将出现下滑。

鉴于一些全球最大的银行自身也存在额外的问题,这些挑战变得更加艰巨。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)刚刚启动了一项大规模重组计划,试图缩减一个不合时宜的结构性投资银行部门。巴克莱的前景被英国退欧的阴云笼罩。同样受到英国退欧影响的汇丰银行(HSBC)还面临着额外难题。

长期以来,股市一直在考虑这些问题。欧洲大型银行的平均交易价格不到其净资产价值的四分之三。德意志银行的市净率不到20%。低于100%的估值表明,投资者要么认为资产不像该行所说的那么值钱,要么认为该行不可能获得令人满意且可持续的利润。而目前美国的银行看上去要健康得多。全球市值最高的银行摩根大通(JPMorgan)的市值接近3400亿美元,接近其资产净值的1.5倍,并接近历史最高水平。

银行老板们很清楚这些问题。近日有报道称,全球银行正在裁员3万人。这些削减大部分是由欧洲银行在欧洲进行的?;ㄆ旒牛–itigroup)是即将裁员的美国银行中的一个例外。

在下一次经济低迷时期,欧洲银行可能比美国竞争对手处于更有利的地位。多年来不利的环境迫使大多数企业提高效率。

相比之下,美国的银行在国内市场更为良性,在国际市场上也更为繁荣。如果全球经济活动下滑,它们将面临风险敞口加大的风险,在贷款条款存在风险的时候,风险增长得也最为迅猛。

欧洲的银行已经习惯了不受欢迎,华尔街的投行们还有很长的路要走。(林克)

本文标题: 观点:当全球经济衰退来临 受冲击更大的是美国的银行
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