五个理由告诉市场 欧洲央行将推迟到9月采取刺激措施

发布时间: 2019-07-24 来源: 新浪财经综合 栏目: 美股新闻 点击:

欧洲央行政策制定者有充分的理由等到9月再实施更多刺激政策。在周三会议召开之前,管理委员会成员曾表示,若有必要,可以采取额...

欧洲央行政策制定者有充分的理由等到9月再实施更多刺激政策。

在周三会议召开之前,管理委员会成员曾表示,若有必要,可以采取额外的支持措施来提振不太景气的欧元区经济。这将是全球货币政策转向更加宽松的最新举措。

欧洲央行行长德拉吉本周四可能会表现出积极主动并已经提出一系列调整的样子?;醣沂谐〗灰自蹦壳叭衔婵罾氏碌?0个基点的概率约为30%。

但大多数经济学家预计官员将首先调整他们的政策措辞,做出降息暗示,然后在9月会议上跟进,采取降息措施并承诺重启资产购买。以下几点论证欧洲央行会等到夏季休会后采取行动:

1.等待美联储

美联储似乎准备在下周将利率降低25个基点,这是十多年来首次降低借贷成本。投资者之前预期的降息幅度更大,然而在经济数据依然强劲的情况下,一些政策制定者反对大幅度的降息。

如果美联储意外采取激进举措或暗示开启宽松周期,欧元可能升值。这将给欧元区通胀带来下行压力并抑制出口,从而进一步削弱经济??赡苤档霉刈⒌氖?,美国官员将如何制定应对措施,特别是考虑到欧洲央行降息空间较小的情况。

“如果欧元区金融状况出现无根据的紧缩,降息则尤为合理 --在美联储降息背景下,紧缩可能会以欧元/美元走强的形态出现,”东方汇理G10研究和策略负责人Valentin Marinov称?!拔颐窃ぜ泼懒⒔氏冉迪?,欧洲央行则慢人一步?!?/p>

2. 经济数据

展现欧元区经济状况的关键数据将在欧洲央行7月会议后公布,包括第二季度增长和新的通胀数据。虽然政策制定者通??梢曰竦帽冉鹑谑谐〔斡胝吒肝⒌耐臣剖?,但任何关于该地区制造业主导的经济放缓可能持续多久的额外信息应该有助于校准响应措施--特别是在近期数据喜忧参半的情况下。

(持续更新)

本文标题: 五个理由告诉市场 欧洲央行将推迟到9月采取刺激措施
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    德意志银行第二季度净亏32亿欧元 交易收入低于预期安倍顾问:若美联储放松政策,日央行或考虑进一步宽松
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