约翰逊就任首相后 首先面对的是警报频闪的经济形势

发布时间: 2019-07-24 来源: 新浪财经综合 栏目: 美股新闻 点击:

即将上任的英国首相约翰逊将继承一个可能正在走向放缓甚至衰退的经济体,在该国准备离开欧盟之际,这将削弱他在未来很多战斗中的...

即将上任的英国首相约翰逊将继承一个可能正在走向放缓甚至衰退的经济体,在该国准备离开欧盟之际,这将削弱他在未来很多战斗中的实力。

 2019年7月23日,英国伦敦,当选英国保守党党首的约翰逊离开保守党总部。  2019年7月23日,英国伦敦,当选英国保守党党首的约翰逊离开保守党总部。

英国2016年公投决定退出欧盟之后,并未发生预期中的经济滑坡。但在退欧不确定性和全球经济放缓的压力下,如今这个全球第五大经济体警报频闪。

定于8月9日、即约翰逊就任首相两周多一点时发布的数据,可能显示第二季经济产出自2012年以来首次萎缩。

这种疲软表现中的很大一部分可能是暂时的:企业在2019年初加紧生产,为3月的英国脱欧第一个截止期限做准备;汽车制造商在4月初进行年度停工,也是为了避免任何脱欧乱局。

但企业采购经理人调查显示,随着退欧截止日期推迟至10月31日,许多行业的放缓情况在第二季不断恶化。

“6月调查尤其疲弱,表明增长速度可能仍疲软,”英国预算责任办公室(OBR)上周警告?!罢庖⒘司每赡苷肴嫠ネ说姆缦铡?。

此外,有迹象显示就业荣景正在走弱。这波荣景让失业率降至1975年以来最低,并推高了薪资。

“综观整个上半年,依我之见,英国经济增长目前正低于潜力,而且过度倚赖家庭支出的韧性,”英国央行总裁卡尼(Mark Carney)本月表示。

花旗分析师Christian Schulz表示,经济走弱可能加深选民对英退的担忧,强化了议会抗拒无协议退欧的决心。

“这将削弱下任首相迫使欧盟让步的筹码”,他在本月稍早给客户的报告中表示。

无协议退欧事关重大

如果英国10月在没有达成过渡协议的情况下退欧,事态可能迅速恶化。

OBR表示,如果英国无协议退欧,明年经济将萎缩2%,如果出现边境乱局,萎缩将更严重。

三家主要信评机构表示,如果没有达成过渡协议以缓解退欧的影响,可能再度调降英国一度位于顶级的评级。这三家评级机构对英国1.8万亿(兆)英镑(2.2万亿美元)的债务感到担忧。

一向乐观的约翰逊则关注正面因素,包括增加支出的空间,或者在经过将近十年的撙节后进行减税。

他自认无法与欧盟达成协议的机率为“百万分之一”,但也表示必要时将带领英国在无协议的情况下脱欧。

英退支持者表示,在遭遇无协议退欧的冲击后,经济有可能迅速反弹,因为企业终究将了解退欧的意义,并能应付投资受到压抑的情况。

“即使在理想状况下能够避免,无协议退欧也将对经济造成冲击,但英国能够应付。关键是,这并非最终结果,”约翰逊的前经济顾问、英国央行总裁候选人赖恩斯(Gerard Lyons)称。

“自从2016年脱欧公投以来,英国经济已经展示出其灵活性,就业岗位增加了100万个,但投资低迷。因此,和应对低薪资问题一样,必须要消除不确定性,”他在英国金融时报上写到。

大部分分析师怀疑,如果制造商精心搭建的供应链受到冲击,投资迅速反弹的可能性有多大。

刺激方案

由于经济基础不稳,市场关注焦点转向提振经济的可选刺激方案上来。

凯投宏观分析师称,英国央行降息和减税增支的刺激措施双管齐下,或许可能带动经济迅速复苏。

但英国央行官员强调称,鉴于银行利率仅略高于金融?;岳创蟛糠质奔涞乃?,他们能够采取的刺激措施有限。

很多分析师表示,英国央行若重启购债刺激举措,可能收效甚微。

这使得外界提高对约翰逊将在多大程度上放松公共财政的关注。而严格控制公共财政近十年来保守党执政的一个标杆。

约翰逊在竞选保守党党魁期间,承诺推出高达数百亿英镑的税收和支出措施。

根据英国预算责任办公室(OBR)的估算,无协议脱欧对公共财政的冲击约为300亿英镑--将使当前的赤字规模增加约一倍--约翰逊和他挑选的财政大臣都必须谨慎行事。

约翰逊做出的最昂贵的承诺之一--削减所得税--对经济究竟有多少好处也存疑。英国经济迫切需要解决更棘手的结构性问题,主要是生产力长期疲软问题。

“可以采用精准的财政措施,帮助经济因应无协议脱欧,”英国国家经济社会研究院(NIESR)在周一公布的报告中表示。

“但令人担忧的是,在实际操作中,财政举措可能无法被引导至最需要它们的地方?!?/p>

本文标题: 约翰逊就任首相后 首先面对的是警报频闪的经济形势
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