如果不在中国大陆,鸿海能去哪儿?

发布时间: 2019-08-25 来源: 《财经》杂志 栏目: 科技新闻 点击:

从利益最大化角度看,鸿海也许不得不把越来越多的“中国制造”迁出,但目前看来,鸿海对“印度制造”和“越南制造”还需要有耐心

从利益最大化角度看,鸿海也许不得不把越来越多的“中国制造”迁出,但目前看来,鸿海对“印度制造”和“越南制造”还需要有耐心

王凤 | 文

谢丽容 | 编辑

8月,鸿海集团(下称“鸿?!保┱狡舳擞《萯Phone生产线,年产能约100万部。以往,每年iPhone新机都是由富士康、和硕等其下代工厂在中国大陆的工厂组装,其他地方只生产旧款iPhone。鸿海印度此举,打破了这一“惯例”。

中美贸易对峙持续升温、苹果iPhone销售持续疲软、特朗普不断施加压力的情况下,七成制造业务扎根中国大陆并向美国等市场出口的鸿海,如何与中国和美国保持一贯的经济合作、互利共赢之生存之道,显得愈加重要。

2017年7月,鸿海前董事长郭台铭响应特朗普“重振美国制造业”的政见,宣称2020年之前在威斯康星州斥资100亿美元打造“威谷科技园”。由于美国劳动力成本相对较高,工厂建设几度生变。如今,当地州政府正重新评估此项目。

同时,“富士康撤离大陆”的信息变得敏感。6月17日,鸿海大陆子公司富士康科技集团发表声明称,“相关流言均为不实信息,目前富士康大陆各园区生产经营有序进行,无撤资现象发生?!薄拔蠢?,富士康仍将持续扎根大陆,深耕发展?!?/p>

鸿海在中国大陆拥有40多个生产基地,发力工业互联网的转型之作“工业富联”(601138.SH)也于2018年6月8日在上交所上市。扎根大陆是必然,但是,正如郭台铭此前所言,中美对峙持续下去,制造业的全球供应链可能将被迫按照中国大陆与美国重新布局,不确定性变大。

此外,全球手机市场饱和、大陆人工成本增加,多重因素在推动鸿海加快变“中国制造”为其他制造的进程。富士康像国内制造业的一艘大船,在产业转移之潮中率先起航。目前看来,印度和越南,是部分产能转移的首选之地。

订单变化:苹果式微,华为转单

作为全球最大的电子产品代工商,鸿海有相当部分业务依赖苹果公司和中国。

鸿海旗下的富智康集团(2038.HK)(下称“富智康”),主要为全球手机行业提供垂直整合制造服务业务,OEM(原始设备制造商)业务模式的系统组装业务,即手机代工,是鸿海过去主要业务模式的典型。其行业门槛低、毛利率低,受人工成本影响大。

8月9日,富智康发布的中报显示,公司上半年实现收入63.89亿美元,同比下降2.65%。存货周转率由5.71次下降到5.34次。实际上,从2016年中期之后,集团的存货周转率总体便呈现下降趋势;存货周转天数也由24.40天延长至33.68天。自2017年中报起,富智康已连续5个报告期净利润为负。

不难推断,当前,其业务规模在持续收缩并日渐疲软。

一方面,中国手机市场面临萎缩压力。据中国信通院统计,2019年上半年,国内手机总体出货量1.86亿部,同比下降5.1%,其中4G手机1.78亿部,同比下降4.2%。富智康主要客户包含小米、华为、OPPO,以及HMD(HMD global Oy)等,这使得集团业绩受中国手机市场影响较大。反映在财报上,集团上半年存货为9.74亿美元,同比下降30%。

市场研究公司IDC报告显示,二季度全球智能手机出货量同比下降2.3%。较长一段时间内,富智康面临的更大问题是,全球手机市场进入饱和状态,且处于4G到5G换机潮来临的前夜,更多的消费者在观望中等待5G成熟。

另一方面,苹果稳定的“摇钱树”角色绝非一成不变,自去年底起苹果不再对外公布iPhone销量,其销售持续低迷。2019年,继第一季度下滑15%、第二季度下滑17%之后,iPhone第三财季营收259.9亿美元,同比下滑12%。作为苹果手机最大的代工企业,鸿海的经营和业绩受iPhone销售情况影响较大。

第三方市场调研机构Canalys最新报告显示,第二季度,华为手机中国市场的市占率达到38.25%,同比增长了31%。对比之下,苹果市占率同比下降了14%。苹果早在第一季度即开启“软救硬”布局,以不断增长的服务业务对冲硬件销售的下滑,这一变化无疑会传导到代工厂。

“去年苹果订单也不多。之前做苹果的产线,很快就转到华为这边了?!币晃桓皇靠倒ぷ魅嗽毕颉恫凭芳钦咄嘎?。富士康对《财经》记者表示,富士康不针对任何客户及产品发表评论。但多位富士康内部员工证实,苹果订单确实下滑。

苹果订单下滑的同时,华为订单不断增加。

5月16日,美国政府将华为纳入“实体清单”后,伟创力(为华为基站、手机等产品提供组装服务)设立于长沙的代工厂不仅停止生产和拒绝发货,而且拒绝归还数亿元华为的设备和物料。随后华为将伟创力剔除供应链,相关订单转向富士康等其他代工厂。

国内,受华为加大订单量、富士康获转单扩增产线消息的影响,富智康股价一度大涨。印度中资手机企业协会秘书长杨述当时对媒体透露,华为在印度的手机代工业务主要由伟创力和富士康承接,伟创力进入黑名单后,订单将向富士康、光弘等组装工厂方面转移。

此前有媒体报道,由于国内客户订单需求的强劲增长,富士康深圳龙华、观澜厂区二季度总体产值同比增长12%,6月份产值单月同比增长4%。

产能转移:美国遇阻,印度扩张

富智康内部订单有了结构性变化,业绩疲软之势短期难有好转,使得大陆产能面临人工成本和关税成本压力更加突出。

9月1日起,美国将对3000亿美元中国商品加征10%的关税,但特朗普在8月13日推迟了包括笔记本电脑和智能手机在内部分商品的关税加征日期。但是,一些变化已经发生。富智康在8月9日发布的半年报中称,他们将扩大客户的生产需求,优化其在印度及越南等新兴市场的资源及产能。

中国在经历“腾笼换鸟”式的产业升级?!八孀殴夜Φ纳仙蜕氐谋浠?,制造业转型升级过程中,富士康的产能转移是符合产业逻辑的必然趋势?!蔽髂现と缱雍托戮檬紫治鍪Τ潞枷颉恫凭芳钦叻治?。

“鸿海内部也在做调整,推进与5G、通讯设备相关的工业富联业务的同时,会越来越多地将不够有效率的低端制造外迁?!币灾行竟?、京东方等为代表的高端制造业将持续增加,当下正处于这一大趋势的起点。

随着中美贸易紧张局势持续升级,多位分析师向《财经》记者表示,富士康和其他制造商都在制定计划,准备将部分生产迁移出中国。

早在多年前,台湾等代工厂就在越南、印度布局?!懊骋渍郊浣蛹哟罅瞬茏频亩屠Α?,一位代工行业人士向《财经》记者分析,国内的人工成本早已提高,关税并不直接给代工厂施压,但最终会通过苹果、惠普等客户降低成本的需要,将转移产能的要求传导回代工厂。

目前,包括富士康在内的多家代工厂正在为此承压。

据台湾《经济日报》报道,尽管特朗普延缓征收对大陆电子产品的关税,台湾四大代工厂已经准备好短期应对措施。广达、仁宝、纬创、英伟达等,都将全面改从台湾出货,增加的成本由客户承担。如果关税上升至25%,长期也将迁移部分产能至东南亚。

“我一向谨慎,都准备好了”。对于将生产线迁出大陆,广达董事长林百里13日在法人说明会上这样说。有关东南亚的设厂布局,林百里则回应,“去东南亚是一定的选项,但什么时候迁进还没决定,目前所有东南亚厂区都看过,具体地点还在评估?!?/p>

实际上,6月12日,鸿海新任董事长刘扬伟,在鸿海台北总部的法人说明会上就明确说,“若客户需要,有能力把生产线转出中国?!本萜浣樯?,鸿海仅约25%的生产能力位于中国以外地区。

鸿海本身是一家全球布局的公司。对其而言,产能转换或生产迁移出中国的目的地有两个——美国和越南、印度等低劳动成本国家。此前较为明朗的,一是特朗普想要“重振制造业”的威斯康星州乐山(Mount Pleasant)村,另一个则是越南北部的广宁省广安东梅工业园区。

富士康在美国拿到创纪录补贴、2017年就开始筹备的液晶显示工厂,是郭台铭一手促成的,特朗普还亲自参加了破土动工仪式,他称赞这个美国历史上外国公司最大规模的绿地投资,证明了他复兴美国制造业的能力,是“第八大世界奇?!?。

这是郭台铭对特朗普“重振制造业”政见的积极响应。今年6月,郭台铭将富士康正式交棒新任董事长刘扬伟,专注于参选2020年台湾地区领导人的国民党初选。美国工厂一度成为郭台铭竞选的资本。

但是,两年过去了,富士康承诺建造的工厂不断缩水。工厂建设几度陷入停滞,原计划创造1.3万个就业岗位,2018年仅创造178个;液晶面板工厂最初声称的10.5代线也调整为6代线。富士康高管胡国辉曾对媒体表示,相比于制造液晶屏,富士康更希望在那里成立一个技术中心,主要为研发设施、包装和组装业务。

7月15日,郭台铭在国民党2020初选中落败。步入“后郭台铭时代”的鸿海,是否继续不遗余力地推动“美国工厂计划”不得而知。目前,威斯康星州政府正重新评估其利弊。

胡国辉表示,美国劳动力成本相对较高。与其在美国生产液晶显示屏,不如在大中华区和日本生产,然后运往墨西哥进行最终组装,再将成品进口到美国,利润会更高。

8月5日,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率双双跌破“7”的整数关口。8月14日,继华为、中科曙光等公司后,美国商务部产业与安全局(BIS)宣布将中广核及其关联共4家公司列入“实体清单”(Entity List)。中美对峙已由贸易领域向科技、货币领域延伸,大陆厂区面临的客户要求转移产能压力增大。

相比之下,越南和印度是当下更好的选项。

“印度/越南制造”有多远?

为什么是印度和越南?

越南成本够低。它与大陆地理位置较近,拥有5750万劳动人口,是劳动力最丰富的东南亚国家之一。2012年至2017年,中国制造业工人的平均年薪上涨了50%(国家统计局)。而越南制造业工人的平均月薪为216美元(约1524元),不足中国工人一半(日本贸易振兴机构数据)。

富智康中报指出,多年前,他们已在印度及越南设立手机组装厂,协助若干中国品牌客户在亚洲、海外及中国境外市场发展业务,争取更大市场占有率。贸易战阴霾笼罩之下,不少客户有意转向越南寻求制造服务,以回避潜在的关税影响。

相关行动早已开始。2018年10月,鸿海旗下鸿腾六零八八精密科技公告将转投资约40亿元新台币,取得越南New Wing Interconnect Technology股权。今年1月初,鸿海公告称,旗下子公司Fugiang斥资1648万美元,向FUHUA购买越南云中工业区25万平方公尺土地的使用权。

6月25日,据越南当地媒体报道,富士康集团越南负责人卓宪宏(Harry Zhuo)与越南当地省级官员会谈,表示鸿海富士康计划在越南北部的广宁省设立电视荧幕组装生产线。鸿海在越南北江(Bac Giang)本就设有制造苹果产品的据点。此外,有市场人士猜测,鸿海正将相关土地出售给旗下负责生产iPhone用的线路和连接器的鸿腾精密(FIT Hon Teng Ltd)。

上述代工行业人士认为,美国向来都是产业转移的幕后推手?!凹甘昵叭绾谓毡局圃臁?、‘韩国制造’转移到中国,如今就如何逼迫‘中国制造’转移出去?!泵拦母呷斯こ杀净嶙枞创蠖嗍こЩ厍?,特朗普退而求其次地选择中国以外相对熟悉的越南。

印度接近市场。根据第三方市场调研机构Counterpoint数据,2019年第一季度,印度智能手机市场份额前五分别是小米(29%)、三星(23%)、vivo(12%)、OPPO(7%)、Realme(7%)。第二季度,印度智能手机市场继续增长,前五位次不变,小米仍以28%市场份额稳居第一。

今年上半年,由于中国品牌客户旗下印度业务持续增长,富智康在印度的业务销售额,占其总销售额约31%。富智康表示,作为印度最大合约制造商之一,将扩大印度当地的制造服务及元件供应链,在印度吸纳更多新中国客户,应对印度市场及出口需求。

鸿海在印度本来就有工厂。2017年12月,富士康已在印度安得拉邦的斯里城拥有5座工厂,为小米、诺基亚等厂商每年制造近1500万部智能手机。2018年,富智康为印度业务额外注资100万美元。

“(印度、越南)进一步扩大很难”,一位台湾代工企业高管告诉《财经》记者,“代工业其实是随潮而居,跟着市场走,跟着生态链走,满足客户?!贝ば幸挡荒艿ゴ恐豢从霉こ杀??!按蠹叶贾烙《鹊娜斯こ杀镜?,如果单纯以用工成本衡量,郭台铭为什么还去美国建工厂?”

以iPhone为例,其组装,不仅只要低成本的劳动力和政府补贴,还有很多配套的硬件、软件设施,需要全球各地的供应商协同。在一个选定的地方设厂,周边必须有完整的生态链,完整的供应链。印度iPhone生产线产能不足,主要是因为苹果对iPhone的组装精密度要求很高,印度工人需要更长的时间学习消化。

“富士康大规模撤出中国是毫无疑问的?!敝泄笠笛芯吭菏紫芯吭崩罱跸颉恫凭芳钦弑硎?,越南和印度初期需要基础配套、培训员工等成本,投入是高昂的。但是国内原材料、人工成本只会增加。对富士康来讲,长痛不如短痛。产能转移,只是时间问题。

这个过程也许相当缓慢。

当下,鸿海面临的问题是,75%的大陆产能,有多少面临转移压力并且能够转移。国内东部地区的工厂相对容易撤离,中西部地区仍处于工业化中期,“人口红利未尽,代工经济对地方经济增长、促进就业、产业工人转型的作用依然相当显著”。

近年来,优衣库、耐克、三星等多家外资巨头,已将中国国内的一些工厂转移到东南亚和印度?!按舐接涤薪偻蛟惫さ母皇靠?,在撤离过程中面对更大的工人补偿安置问题。所在地政府也会成为阻力?!崩罱醪钩涞?。

从利益最大化角度看,鸿海也许不得不把越来越多的“中国制造”迁出,但目前看来,鸿海对“印度制造”和“越南制造”还需要有耐心。

作者为《财经》记者,原载2019年8月19日《财经》杂志

作者:王凤

本文标题: 如果不在中国大陆,鸿海能去哪儿?
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