招商策略:看淡外部冲击 坚定布局景气版块

发布时间: 2019-08-25 来源: 新浪财经-自媒体综合 栏目: 股市新闻 点击:

【招商策略】看淡外部冲击,坚定布局景气版块——A股投资策略周报(0825)来源:招商策略研究本周,MSCI上调权重因子将...

【招商策略】看淡外部冲击,坚定布局景气版块——A股投资策略周报(0825)

来源:招商策略研究

本周,MSCI上调权重因子将会实施,而富时罗素指数上调A股权重因子落地,在全球经济进入下行通道,中国无论是在经济韧性、利率水平以及A股估值水平,均体现出相对较优投资价值。上周,三家大型海外投资机构注册了新的证券投资基金。淡化外部冲击,寻找景气板块,是全年至今始终不变的A股主旋律。

核心观点

【观策·论市】看淡外部冲击,专注寻找景气板块。建议关注景气度已经出现明显向上趋势并且业绩确定性较强的行业,如光伏、通信设备/通信基建、半导体、油服设备、消费电子、军工、云计算、券商和金融IT等细分领域。

【中观·景气】日本半导体设备出货额边际复苏。7月,日本半导体设备制造商出货额跌幅较上个月缩小,台积电营收维持两位数增长,随国内5G落地进度加快,后续半导体行业景气度有望逐步改善。7月光伏组件出口数量和出口金额维持高增长但增幅收窄。1-7月电源建设投资完成额同比微升,电网投资完成额跌幅收窄。8月以来,猪价显著上涨,本周自繁自养生猪和外购仔猪养殖利润大幅上行。全国产能去化加剧和非洲猪瘟导致全国大范围猪肉供不应求,猪肉价格不断创年内新高导致了生猪养殖利润大幅上行。白酒价格指数上行,白酒价格提升,产量同比增速回落。

【资金·众寡】两融扩容带动融资回升,MSCI第二次扩容在即。上周北上资金净流入112.5亿元,创7月以来单周净最大值,净买入规模较高的行业为医药生物、银行、家电,且非银金融结束连续多周的净卖出。8月27日收盘后MSCI第二次扩容将生效,有望带来被动增量资金约250亿元。叠加FTSE扩容、标普道琼斯纳入A股等多重因素,北上资金流入规模有望增加。与此同时,海外机构积极进入中国私募市场。另外,上周前4个交易日融资余额净增加217亿元,创4月下旬以来单周增量最大值,主要源新增两融标的。

【主题·风向】下周主题观点方面,2019第二十一届中国深圳国际光电博览会将在9月4日-7日在深圳会展中心举行,关注相关催化带来的光通信等的投资机会;此外9月5G手机的密集发布将继续催化以华为产业链为代表的电子股行情。

【数据·估值】整体A股估值小幅回暖,大部分一级行业估值提升,其中国防军工、计算机、电子、食品饮料上行幅度靠前,而农林牧渔估值出现回调。

风险提示:经济数据低于预期,政策支持力度不及预期。

01

观策·论市——看淡外部冲击,专注寻找景气板块

不同行业的涨跌幅明显分化,但是必需消费、大金融和军工等领域在这种情形下依然取得正收益,而其他行业在经济下行和贸易摩擦共振的背景下表现萎靡。农林牧渔、非银金融、食品饮料、国防军工、银行、计算机这六个行业涨跌幅较高,其中以农林牧渔(27.6%)、非银(20.6%)和食品饮料(19.9%)的涨幅最大;农林渔牧板块主要得益于禽畜供应端受限带来的涨价行情,因此受到了景气度向上和业绩改善的双重催化;食品饮料行业则是景气度最为持久的行业之一,经济下行背景下大众消费品的营收和盈利稳定性最为有保障;而非银金融则是在年初风险偏好持续提升的情况下实现了较大幅度的反弹,银行虽然没有较高的业绩增速但是稳定的股息率以及便宜的估值依然具备有较大的吸引力;国防军工则是在贸易摩擦不断升温的情形下凸显了较强的抵御风险属性。而钢铁、传媒、纺织服装、汽车、轻工制造、商业贸易在过去一年多的时间里下跌幅度超过-20%。从不同涨跌幅区间的公司数量分布来看,大约有60%的股票在在此区间内的涨跌幅在-50至0之间,大约有32%的公司取得了正收益,也有极少部分的公司(2.1%)取得了翻倍增长。

由此可见,尽管摩擦带来短期冲击,但是并不妨碍业绩确定性强、景气度向上、逆周期属性明显的行业受到资金追捧,从而走出相对独立的行情??只徘樾飨啾热ツ暌渤鱿至嗣飨缘娜趸?,同时恰逢半年报披露季,业绩确定性强和行业景气度向上的领域依然会受到资金的青睐。

短期内人民币贬值的压力依然存在,自两周前人民币兑美元中间价汇率破“7”以来,目前已经贬值至7.0572,可能会对北上资金造成一定的压力,而下周MSCI上调权重因子将会实施,而富时罗素指数上调A股权重因子落地,被动增量资金可在一定程度上缓解资金流出的压力。

整体来看,前期部分落入景气下滑区间的行业可能已经出现好转迹象,同时也有部分行业龙头个股在公布中报业绩预告之后受到多家机构上调未来的盈利预期。在贸易摩擦或将加剧或者人民币贬值压力依然存在的情况下,建议关注景气度已经出现明显向上趋势并且业绩确定性较强的行业:

· 光伏。光伏组件出口数量和出口金额继续保持高速增长,7月光伏组件出口数量当月同比增速为58.22%。海外市场光伏装机需求具有持续性,行业龙头企业在去年四季度达到低点之后,一季报和中报盈利表现持续好转,行业继续保持高景气度。

· 通信设备/通信基建。随着5G通信网络建设,三大运营商资本开支开启新一轮上行周期,部分通信设备及其上游已经迎来业绩兑现,尤其是设备供应商以及上游元器件供应商(PCB、射频器件、光??椋┑?。

·  半导体。北美半导体设备出货额(行业先行指标之一)同比已经连续两个月复苏,日本半导体设备出货额也迎来了边际好转。行业龙头公司台积电6月营收超预期,7月依然保持双位数增长。5G、物联网、HPC、以及新一轮换机周期是行业继续好转的动力。

·  油服设备。国家政策的推进及限制条件的放宽、油气公司勘探资本开支的扩大将带动油服行业的超长景气周期,2019年上半年油服板块部分企业盈利已经彰显复苏的迹象。国内三桶油纷纷制定了七年行动计划,即自2019年-2025年将进一步加大石油天然气的勘探开支,该计划将为整个油服板块营造超长的景气上行周期。同时,今年8月起将实施《外商投资准入特别管理措施(负面清单)(2019年版)》,预计上游油服行业的资本开支力度将进一步加强。

·   消费电子?;行?G手机已发布,新一轮换机周期大幕将起,TWS耳机、VRAR、折叠屏等贡献新的增量。

·  军工。国防军工行业2019Q1业绩增速已经回暖至47%左右,特别是航天装备、航空装备、地面兵装等领域均保持向好的态势,先行指标如预收账款也在持续改善,表明在手订单相对充足,预计景气度继续好转。

·  云计算。在美国科技巨头亚马逊、谷歌和微软最新披露的财报中,云业务保持高增长。根据IDC《全球云计算IT基础设施市场预测报告》,2019年全球云上的IT基础设施占比超过传统数据中心。在7月25日召开的阿里云峰会上,阿里云智能总裁提出“今年是从传统IT向云计算全面转移的分水岭”,下半年国内政企全面上云,云计算需求得以持续。

·  金融IT和券商。上半年二级市场回暖以及投资收益大幅改善带动券商盈利出现反转,接下来科创板的积极推进是券商板块较为重要的机遇。若市场风险偏好出现进一步的回升,券商和金融IT可能会有较高的预期回报率。

02

中观·景气——半导体景气提升,电网投资回暖

日本半导体设备出货额边际复苏。7月,日本半导体设备制造商出货额为1530.70亿日元,同比下滑18.94%,跌幅较上个月缩小4.12个百分点,环比上个月增长11.21%。7月全球代工龙头台积电营收维持两位数增长。2019年1-7月,台积电累计营收为5444.61亿新台币,累计同比较去年同期下滑2.03%,跌幅较上个月收窄2.47个百分点。台股IC设计企业和镜头行业均维持正增长。随国内5G落地进度加快,后续半导体行业景气度有望逐步改善。

7月光伏组件出口数量和出口金额维持高增长但增幅收窄。因海外市场装机速度放缓,7月光伏组件出口规?;繁壬显滦》禄?。7月份,光伏组件出口数量为5.52GW,与去年同期相比增长58.22%;光伏组件出口金额为14.53亿美元,当月同比增速达33.3%。1-7月电源建设投资完成额同比微升,电网投资完成额跌幅收窄。1-7月电源基本建设投资完成额累计1,246亿元,同比微升0.70%,其中7月环比下跌2.60%;电网基本投资完成额累计2,021亿元,同比减少13.90%。

进入8月以来,猪价显著上涨,本周自繁自养生猪和外购仔猪养殖利润大幅上行。7月份生猪存栏21932万头,同比下降32.2%,降幅较6月扩大6.4个百分点。截至8月16日,自繁自养生猪养殖利润为944.2元/头,较上周上涨24.56%;外购仔猪生猪养殖利润为683.67元/头,较上周上涨35.26%。全国产能去化加剧和非洲猪瘟导致全国大范围猪肉供不应求,猪肉价格不断创年内新高导致了生猪养殖利润大幅上行。

白酒价格指数上行,价格提升,产量同比增速回落。根据一号店多种白酒终端单价,最新数据显示,白酒价格指数为1113.8,环比上涨0.44%。7月份白酒产量为52.4万千升,当月同比增速回落至0.8%;1-7月白酒累计产量达456.1万千升,累计同比增速为1.1%。8月16日500ml五粮液(52度)在一号店和京东价格调升100元/瓶。

03

资金·众寡——扩容提振两融资金,MSCI二次扩容在即

受LPR形成机制改革以及支持深圳建设的相关指导意见等多重利好消息的提振,上周一股市强势上涨,其中北上资金和融资资金均大规模净流入,从全周来看,两融标的扩容实施对融资资金具有明显提振作用。

上周北上资金净流入112.5亿元,创7月以来单周净流入最高规模,其中周一净流入78.5亿元。行业偏好上,北上资金净买入规模较高的行业为医药生物、银行、家电,非银金融结束连续多周的净卖出,转为较大规模净流入。净买入额较高的个股主要包括平安银行(12.66亿元)、格力电器(7.9亿元)、五粮液(7亿元)、??低樱?.9亿元)等。净卖出规模较高的行业为机械设备、有色金属,净卖出规模均不超过5亿元。个股净卖出规模较高的为贵州茅台(-6.21亿元)、浙江鼎利(-4.2亿元)、大族激光(-3亿元)。从增持强度来看,建材、轻工、家电、计算机等净增持强度居前。

8月27日收盘后MSCI第二次扩容将生效,将所有纳入MSCI的大盘股的纳入比例从10%提高至15%,此次扩容后,A股在MSCI新兴市场指数、MSCI中国指数的占比将分别提高至2.46%和7.79%。根据测算,本次扩容有望为A股带来增量资金约180亿美元,汇率按照7计算,则对应人民币约1260亿元,其中被动增量资金约250亿元。

另外,富时罗素指数公布了9月的扩容计划,将A股纳入比例从5%提高至15%,并将于9月23日开盘时生效。此次FTSE扩容有望为A股带来被动增量资金约40亿美元,按照汇率7计算,则对应人民币增量资金约280亿元。

在各大指数相继对A股扩容的提振作用下,北上资金流入规模有望增加。

在中国资本市场对外开放深化过程中,海外机构积极进军中国私募。从基金业协会公布的情况来看,目前已经有24家外资独资机构申请成为私募证券投资基金管理人;另有16家海外独资机构登记成为“其他私募投资基金管理人”。前者将在中国发行私募基金,并投资A股市场。后者主要为QDLP(合格境内有限合伙人),通过在境内发行基金募资,并投向海外资本市场。在这些外资私募基金管理人中,不乏全球顶级资管公司,包括贝莱德、瑞银、富达、安联、施罗德、安盛、桥水等。2018年末166家外资独资机构登记成为私募基金管理人,2019年另有16家新增外资独资私募基金管理人。

此外,这些外资私募旗下管理了数只私募证券投资基金。据统计,截至目前外资私募证券投资基金管理人旗下共发行管理了568只私募证券投资基金,正在运作的333只,其中2018年备案产品73只,2019年截至目前新增备案49只。

两融方面,截至8月22日,融资余额为9039.63亿元,上周前4个交易日融资余额净增加217亿元,创4月下旬以来单周增量最大值,主要源于两融标的扩容。

具体来看,融资余额单周净增加两融标的扩容在8月19日生效,当天融资净流入108亿元,对当天提供了流动性支撑。随后的几个交易日,融资净买入回归平稳,保持小幅净流入。具体来看,前4个交易日融资余额净增加217亿元,其中,新增两融标的的融资余额为279亿元,这就意味着原有两融标的总体还是融资净卖出的状态。并且从市场表现来看,650只新增两融标的中,548只股票当周上涨,96只股票下跌,6只持平。因此,本周融资资金的回暖主要由标的扩容带动,并且新增融资资金对这些股票的市场表现有助推作用。

从资金需求来看,重要股东净减持规模下降,股东计划减持规?;芈?。上周重要股东二级市场增持3.35亿元,减持47亿元,净减持43.7亿元,相比前期净减持104亿元的规模明显收缩。另外,公告的计划减持规模为72亿元,较前期的196亿元减半。

04

主题·风向——关注光通信和5G手机密集发布

本周市场大涨,上证综合指数周度上涨2.61%,中小板指周度上涨3.38%,创业板指周度上涨3.03%,沪深300周度上涨2.97%,中小创强于上证综指。我们跟踪的重点主题指数涨幅数据显示,单周收益最高的五大主题中,受深圳示范区事件刺激的深圳主题上涨15.73%、深圳市国资主题上涨12.70%,此外电子烟主题上涨12.01%、工业大麻主题上涨8.78%、金融科技主题上涨8.12%。

本周和下周值得关注的主题事件有:

1、区块链——国网电商公司成立区块链子公司

国网电子商务有限公司22日宣布,国网区块链科技(北京)有限公司正式揭牌成立。国网电商公司称,区块链技术形态与国家电网公司泛在电力物联网建设高度契合,能够推动上下游产业互信,实现数据高效共享,提升风险防范能力,有效解决泛在电力物联网建设过程中面临的数据融通、网络安全、多主体协同等问题。(每日经济新闻)

2、教育——学前教育法草案文本已初步形成

受国务院委托,教育部部长陈宝生22日向全国人大常委会作国务院关于学前教育事业改革和发展情况的报告时透露,在全国人大教科文卫委员会指导下,教育部已成立学前教育立法工作领导小组,牵头开展学前教育法起草工作,多次召开专题立法座谈会,组织开展立法调研和专题研究,目前已经初步形成了草案文本。陈宝生说,目前教育部正在组织力量对草案进行修改完善,拟列入国务院2020年立法计划。(新华社)

3、新能源汽车——工信部:将支持有条件的地方和领域设立燃油汽车禁行区等试点,工信部副部长:加快推进《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)》编制工作

工信部8月20日发布《对十三届全国人大二次会议第7936号建议的答复》称,将组织开展深入细致的综合分析研判,因地制宜、分类施策,支持有条件的地方和领域开展城市公交出租先行替代、设立燃油汽车禁行区等试点,在取得成功的基础上,统筹研究制定燃油汽车退出时间表。下一步,工信部将抓紧研究制定《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)》,推动我国新能源汽车产业实现高质量发展。

工信部副部长辛国斌在2019全球汽车产业创新大会上强调,在面临较大下行压力的情况下,全行业要“变革破局”、“化危为机”,采取切实可行措施,增强产业持续发展的动力。加快推进《新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)》编制工作,修订实施《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法》,完善传统内燃机汽车与新能源汽车协调发展机制。

4、自主可控、华为产业链——消息称三星代工高通5G处理器产品全数报废

《财经新报》引述知情人士说法指出,三星7nm制程所代工的高通Snapdragon SDM7250处理器,因良率出问题,导致全数产品报废,三星本身的处理器也发生同样状况。知情人士透露,高通Snapdragon SDM7250处理器预计在明年第1季问世,倘若该处理器因良率问题导致出货变少,将削减客户对三星7nm制程的信心,并影响该公司在7nm制程需求上的占比。

5、5G手机——华为:今年底推出支持700MHz频段的5G手机

在20日举行的“中国广电5G论坛”上,华为5G产品线副总裁杜叶青表示,随着5G标准与产业的进展加速,全场景支持、大信道带宽、广播业务的支持,广电正在联合华为推动R17 WI相关立项?;低吃?019年Q2已经支持700MHz,预计今年底推出支持700MHz频段的5G手机,2020年上半年可以支持商用,到2021年,手机终端将会全频段支持。(飞象网)

6、光伏——亿晶、隆基、阳光电源成国家电投朝阳500MW光伏平价项目大赢家

根据招标公告,亿晶光电以315Wp报价1.903元/瓦独获414MW组件订单+340MW的组件优先采购权,第一、第二备选中标人分别为锦州阳光和隆基乐叶;含组件、逆变器采购权的大EPC则由隆基中标,两个标段开标价格分别为3.598以及3.595元/瓦,该标段不包含送出及升压站;逆变器方面,阳光电源以0.21元/瓦的价格获得约为133MW的组串式逆变器订单,禾望电气中标集散式标段,开标价格为0.232元/瓦。(光伏們)

9、知识产权、高校系——六部委联合印发《关于扩大高校和科研院所科研相关自主权的若干意见》

科技部、教育部等六部委联合印发《关于扩大高校和科研院所科研相关自主权的若干意见》,科技、财政等部门要开展赋予科研人员职务科技成果所有权或长期使用权试点,为进一步完善职务科技成果权属制度探索路子(科学网)

10、下乡消费——有关部门正酝酿制定市民下乡消费促进政策

从发改委获悉,有关部门正酝酿制定市民下乡消费促进政策,以求释放城市居民庞大消费需求(上证报)

11、金融科技——《金融科技(FinTech)发展规划(2019-2021年)》全文公布,共包括27项主要任务

包括利用人工智能、支付标记化、云计算、大数据等技术优化移动支付技术架构体系,研究制定条码支付互联互通技术标准;探索人脸识别线下支付安全应用,借助密码识别、隐私计算、数据标签、模式识别等技术,利用专用口令、“无感”活体检测等实现交易验证,突破1:N人脸辨识支付应用性能瓶颈等。(21世纪经济报道)

12、涨价——浙江印染厂带头上调染费,或启动新一轮涨价行情

据悉,8月21日浙江杭州某染整企业发布《关于染费调价的公函》,称将于8月26日正式对染整加工费进行调整:以长度计费的产品,染费价格在原定价格基础上上调0.10-0.20元/米;以重量计费的产品,染费价格在原定价格基础上上调0.30-0.50元/公斤。

下周主题观点面,2019第二十一届中国深圳国际光电博览会将在9月4日-7日在深圳会展中心举行,关注相关催化带来的光通信、红外产业、激光产业和智能制造等的投资机会;此外9月5G手机的密集发布将继续催化以华为产业链为代表的电子股行情,伴随着5G换机周期的来临,具备先发优势的华为将进一步提升市场占有率,相关领域的公司将持续受益。

§  第二十一届光博会来了,关注相关催化

本次光博会将在9月4日-7日在深圳会展中心举行,CIOE 中国光博会21年来一直深耕光电行业,预计本届光博会将有以下一些看点:

6大展区板块齐聚行业热点产品

今年展会现场聚焦众多行业热点产品及技术,重点聚焦光芯片、光???、光学镜头、数据中心、镜头模组、机器视觉、VCSEL、激光雷达、毫米波太赫兹、激光清洗等。

展会同期将举办六大展,覆盖光电全产业链:光通信展集中展示光芯片、光器件、光???、系统设备及5G应用等;精密光学展&镜头及摄像模组展汇聚光学全产业链,覆盖“精密光学元件加工产业集群”、“镜头制造产业集群”两大光学产业集群;激光技术及智能制造展从激光材料到激光设备,展示激光全产业链;红外技术及应用展集中展示红外材料、器件、设备及应用产品;光电传感展汇聚全球激光雷达“领头羊”企业,以及3D传感、光电传感等前沿技术及产品;光电子创新展汇聚国内顶尖高校及科研院所,全面展示国家科研机构光电前沿产品;进一步促进产业间的交流与发展。

特设毫米波太赫兹展示区暨论坛

CIOE携手毫米波太赫兹产业发展联盟举办“毫米波太赫兹展示区暨论坛”,展示区位于1号馆1D52展位,将展示涵盖毫米波太赫兹全产业链条,如芯片、器件、材料、测试及系统应用等产品。目前参与的企业有东莞明阳光电、雄安太芯电子、硕讯科技、矽典微电子、兴晟光电、苏州诺登德、星英联微波科技、帝尔时代、大恒新纪元、矽赫科技、华太极光光电、浙江大立、湖北久之洋等。同时举办的“2019太赫兹探测技术应用论坛”,将力邀全球红外产业科研院所、实验室、知名企业、知名分析机构共同探讨红外探测技术和太赫兹技术在众多应用领域的市场发展前景等。

7大国家及地区展区带来全球新品新技术前瞻展示

德国、丹麦、加拿大、美国、日本、韩国等国家展团及中国台湾地区展团齐聚,带来光电领域国际前沿的技术及产品。

全面展示国家科研机构光电前沿产品

CIOE光电子创新展聚焦中国科研院所前沿的创新光电子技术,全面展示其孵化企业最新产品,展示的科研院所包含浙江大学光电科学与工程学院、中国科学院苏州生物医学工程技术研究所、中国科学院西安光学精密机械研究所、北京空间机电研究所、中国科学院光电技术研究所等;现场特别制作《前沿科技手册》助参展者迅速了解光电领域新技术及发展。

我们认为本届光博会跟过去几届最大的不同在于,5G时代已经正式来临,5G相关的产品订单可能会超预期,5G光???、机器视觉、激光雷达、3D传感等产品在5G时代将大规模放量,从投资的角度来看,过去十年光博会前光通信相关标的具备超额收益的概率较高,可关注光通信相关领域的主题投资机会,此外,5G下游应用如VR/AR等也将受益于光电产品的技术进步。

§   5G手机将进入密集发布期,关注催化

根据媒体爆料,苹果秋季新品发布会将于9月10日举行,尽管此前库克曾表示当下的 5G 技术仍不足够成熟,还不是推出的最佳时机,但在众多手机厂商纷纷发布 5G手机下,首部5G苹果手机于9月发布具备一定的可能性,若5G Iphone正式发布,则超出市场预期,可关注对苹果产业链个股催化。

先前,小米就推出了旗下首款5G手机:小米MIX3,而在8月22日,小米CEO雷军在庆祝中华人民共和国成立70周年系列论坛第二场,接受了网友的提问并表示:小米第一款5G手机是今年5月在欧洲首发,第二款准备即将在9月国内首发。

雷军还表示:5G对智能手机企业来说是一次重大的机遇,3年前小米就开始准备各种5G技术的预研,他表示,现在5G才刚刚开始拉开序幕,明年第二季度开始5G网络的铺设和5G终端普及将大规模到来。

此前中国联通在官方微博上表示在9月即将发布的三星note 10 5G版、vivo NEX 5G版、小米9S这三款机型以及后续上市的华为mate 30 5G、三星A90 5G版、vivo X系列均将上架中国联通线上线下渠道。

近年来,每年秋季往往是消费电子特别是智能手机的密集发布期,今年秋季消费电子的热点无疑是5G手机,将进入密集发布期,前期受5G手机发布的催化和5G带来的新一轮消费电子上行期以及部分电子股业绩超预期的催化,华为产业链和部分苹果产业链个股持续表现,我们认为9月5G手机的密集发布将继续催化以华为产业链为代表的电子股行情,伴随着5G换机周期的来临,具备先发优势的华为将进一步提升市场占有率,相关领域的公司将持续受益。

05

数据·估值——整体A股估值上行

本周整体A股、创业板估值继续上行。其中全部A股PE(TTM)上调至14.5X,处于历史估值水平的22.3%分位数。创业板PE(TTM)由上周的39.9X上调至本周的40.1X,处于2009年以来历史估值水平的24.5%分位数?;ι?00指数PE(TTM)小幅上行至11.8X,处于历史估值水平的33.1%分位。代表小盘股的中证1000指数PE(TTM)上行至23.1X,处于2014年以来历史估值水平的13.7%分位。

行业估值方面,国防军工继续上行,农林牧渔大幅回落。本周大部分一级行业PE(TTM)估值提升,其中国防军工(上调1.9x)、计算机(上调1.5x)、电子(上调1.3x)、食品饮料(上调1.3x)上行幅度靠前。本周估值向下回落的行业中农林牧渔(回落3.1x)下调幅度最大,由上周的41.9%历史估值分位回落至31.3%分位。本周过后,一级行业估值排名前五的行业分别为国防军工、计算机、通信、电子和食品饮料。

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