中国究竟是何时跃过刘易斯拐点的?

发布时间: 2019-08-27 来源: 新浪财经综合 栏目: 娱乐新闻 点击:

中国究竟何时跃过刘易斯拐点的在均衡思想的指导下,理解中国城乡劳动力的流动郑乾?|文?原载“中国金融四十人论坛”,转载自微...

中国究竟何时跃过刘易斯拐点的

在均衡思想的指导下,理解中国城乡劳动力的流动

郑乾 | 文 

原载“中国金融四十人论坛”,转载自微信公众号“原子智库”

编者按

在讨论中国最近三四十年经济高速发展的相关因素时,“人口红利”是被提及频率最高的关键词之一。而农村富余劳动力向城市产业部门的大量转移,则是“人口红利”中最引人关注的部分。也因此,度量“人口红利”的“刘易斯拐点”,就显得颇为重要。

但不同于很多人认为的,越过本世纪第一个十年后中国的人口红利才开始衰减,本期“原子智库”分享的这篇文章认为:中国早在2004年前后即提前迎来刘易斯拐点,而对劳动力流出地的财政补贴政策和对劳动力流入城市的体制性障碍,是导致这个拐点提前到来的重要原因。虽然从公共政策的角度,补贴是必要的;然而从经济角度看,却可能偏离当地的比较优势、以短期的经济高速增长掩盖其中的低效率问题。

均衡——局部均衡和一般均衡,是经济学理论中最重要的概念之一。一般均衡是局部均衡的扩展。我们不需要系统的理解均衡理论的发展,但可以在均衡思想的指导下,理解中国城乡劳动力的流动,并发现一些有趣的现象。

劳动力的短缺:刘易斯拐点

简单说,刘易斯拐点,是指在工业化进程中,随着农村富余劳动力向非农产业的逐步转移,农村富余劳动力逐渐减少,最终达到瓶颈状态。国际上通常用刘易斯拐点来判断劳动力是否短缺。

显然,在中国,根据简单的供求关系可以推测,当农民工供不应求(用工荒)并伴随着农民工工资上升,即可能是出现了刘易斯拐点。

通常认为,中国的刘易斯拐点出现在2004年。因为2004-2007年间,中国持续出现以青年普通民工短缺为特征的“民工荒”现象;并且,恰恰在这个时期,农民工工资出现了较大幅度的持续上升。

但这个时间点可能被提前了。也就是说,存在某种因素使得中国的人口红利过早开始了消退。

为什么刘易斯拐点被提前了?

城乡人口为何会出现流动?为了赚钱。

何时会停止流动?当城乡人均收入趋同,即人均收入达到稳态的时候。

非常容易理解的逻辑:劳动力价格(收入)是调节农民工流动最主要的影响因素,当城市收入高的时候,农村的富余劳动力自然涌入城市。

如果收入是主要影响因素,那岂不是所有人都想到城市生活?这个质疑有道理,但不可能成立。

第一,尽管农村收入低于城市,但城市没有这么多的岗位容纳这么多人口。所以,农民不可能突然间全部涌入城市,因为没有工作的农民,收入为零。

第二,随着农村人口的流出,剩余的农村劳动力的收入会上升,趋近于城市劳动力的收入。这个值可以称为实际经济中的均衡值——农民没有必要再进城。

第三,由于存在高房价、户籍等软硬限制,非本地居民在城市生活的成本较本地城市居民要高。所以,即使存在就业岗位,农民工也不一定进城。

从数学上理解农民工的城乡流动现象,更为直观。由索罗增长模型受到启发,将柯布-道格拉斯生产函数改写为城乡二元情况下的农民工流动模型。

假设农村的唯一产业是农业(忽略其他副业),农民的收入是耕地的函数;农民工收入是资本、劳动和技术的函数。显然,当农村的人均收入等于农民工的城市收入时,人口流动趋近稳态。

用通俗的经济学原理解释就是,贴近现实的初始假设是,城市收入高于农村,此时,农村劳动力流入城市、寻求工作机会和更高的收入。由此,农村劳动力流出,这个过程叫农业剩余劳动力转移,但伴随着的现象是剩下的农村人口的人均收入增高。由此,当城乡收入趋同时,人口流动达到均衡。区域均衡发展要求地区间的人均收入趋同。

回到问题,为什么刘易斯拐点可能被提前了?

因为刘易斯拐点和农民工城乡流动的前提假设都是:劳动力在城乡和行业间自由流动。

但2004年的中国,一方面,东部沿海地区用工难、用工贵的现象频繁见诸报端;另一方面,2000年开始启动西部大开发战略,中央财政开始针对西部地区进行转移支付,转移支付金额逐年提升(2004年中央财政对中西部的税收返还、专项转移支付和一般性转移支付,共计2409.54亿元。其中,专项转移支付资金76.9亿元)。

显然,财政转移支付增大了农民的收入,这就导致尽管彼时中国还有3亿(38%)农民,却同时出现了中西部劳动力流出减少和劳动力价格的升高,东部沿海地区的用工难和用工贵问题。

所以,看起来2004年是中国的刘易斯拐点,因为东部劳动力减少并伴随着劳动力工资上升。但其中的部分原因是政策扭曲导致的,真正的刘易斯拐点可能被提前了。

这还有一个什么启示呢?

经济增速的自然下滑通常包括两方面的原因:经济发展的自然规律、国际经济的周期性影响。但中国经济增速的下滑,除了经济发展的自然规律和国际经济周期影响,还有一部分不可忽视的原因是,在中国的特殊国情下,统一市场被分割为城乡二元而造成的政策扭曲。例如,户籍制度限制人力资本流动,财政政策扭曲劳动力转移。

为什么劳动力流动会影响经济增速?

答案在于,人均资本稳态被扭曲。

我们当然知道,真实世界不可能达到理论上的黄金稳态。但劳动力流动的扭曲,可能使得人均资本偏离稳态更远。

新古典增长理论中的经典模型——索罗模型,采用了资本和劳动可替代的新古典科布-道格拉斯生产函数,将资本、劳动、技术纳入同一个函数对经济增长做出了阐释。

假设技术增长率、人口增长率、资本折旧率和储蓄率为外生给定,即短期不随时间变化而变化。由此可以看出:

第一,一个经济在长期中(稳态),只有技术或者知识会使得经济持续增长,而由于储蓄率并没有进入到此等式中,因此它并不影响经济的持续增长。但增大储蓄率其实会增大稳态,从而影响经济增长,这里不再分析。

第二,人均资本在生产中的比率是可变的,会动态调整。当人均资本量大于其均衡状态时,人均资本量会有逐渐减小的趋势,即资本的增加就会比劳动力的增加慢得多;反之,亦然?;蛘呋痪浠八?,资本和劳动力存在一个稳定的配比。

当然,外生折旧率和储蓄率的变化还是会影响到经济增长,但我们通常假设一段时间内,储蓄率会保持稳定。

索罗模型暗含着一个有意思的问题是,如果一个经济的目标是使人均消费最大化,那么,如果人均资本量使得资本的边际产品等于劳动的增长率,那每个人的消费就会达到最大。

经济增长是最重要的经济学议题,但经济增长的同时,必然要注意城乡、区域的均衡发展,否则会带来贫富差距、环境污染、效率损失等一系列问题。尤其需要厘清的是,经济增长的目标伴随着实现经济的均衡发展,但经济均衡发展的内涵是指,在自由统一市场上人均收入的收敛,而不是人口、资源在地理范围上的均匀分布。

2004年前后,由于对中西部大量的财政转移支付而导致东部沿海地区的劳动力价格上升,偏离了人均资本稳态。结果就是,地区之间或者城乡之间的经济发展水平和人均收入的收敛,是以牺牲经济增长效率为代价的。

世界银行的报告提供了实证证据:中国的增量资本产出率(ICOR)——该指标衡量单位增量产出所需的投资——从1991-2011年的3.6,上升至2009-2011年的4.7。而在城市级别,人口低于50万的西部城市的ICOR超过了5.5——这种低效是显而易见的。

这种大量的财政支持,短期必然会带来显著的经济增长绩效;但长期来看,在欠发达地区进行的投资,其实是人为偏离当地经济发展的比较优势,必然带来无效率、供给过剩和债务负担。

为什么欠发达地区的投资偏离当地的比较优势?

实证很复杂,逻辑很简单:各级政府的决策函数,不是全国范围内的帕累托最优,而是各地方自己的经济收益最大。这里的经济收益包括:本地的经济规模、投资和税收的最大化,直接的表现就是地区生产总值(GDP)的最大化。

在这种情况下,地方政府必然策略性的选择一些并不具备比较优势但短期能够带来显著经济增长的产业,以获取高收益。例如,修建产业园区或者卫星城。在这种动机下,地方政府牵头开发的“新城”,变成了与市场需求脱节的“鬼城”,或者出现重复建设和市场分割,实在不是什么好奇怪的事情。

侧面证据是,全国各省市与中央政府高度一致的产业同构现象:中央政府倡导发展某种产业,地方政府忽略自身优势,大干快上加紧发展某种产业,即中央政府的产业政策是地方政府的重要参照。

直接的证据就是,2004年前后,伴随着财政转移支付,同时出现了全要素生产率增速放缓和资源配置效率恶化。

为什么没有人提出这个问题?

最主要的原因在于,这一时期处于全球经济的繁荣周期,外需强劲,中国经济保持两位数的高速增长,再加上此时人口特征非常接近刘易斯拐点的特征,从而很大程度上掩盖了经济高速增长中的低效率问题。

当然,有相当多的学者发现了这个问题,但实证数据存在很强的时滞,且反对意见有悖于当地政府拉动当地经济增长的初衷,所以,反对的声音被淹没了。而金融?;?,由于全球经济增长不景气,外需放缓,所以中国经济自身的结构性问题和债务问题越来越突出,越来越受到经济学家和决策层重视。

这是不是说,反对向中西部的财政政策倾斜呢?

当然不是。向中西部落后地区的财政支持是有必要的,西部大开发战略是对的,财政转移支付的动机是好的,财政政策的结果也是有效的。政府干预经济,必然会存在效率损失——这是全世界都存在的问题。我们能做的就是,尽可能让政府干预和财政支持更有效率。

财政支持的目的是,发展地方经济、改善人民生活。主流的人口红利理论的观点认为:人口的年龄结构是驱动经济增长的主要动力。但统一增长理论认为:教育投入所建立的人力资本,驱动了人口结构转变和经济增长。

越来越多的实证研究支持后者的观点——教育水平改善的影响,要远远大于年龄结构的影响,人口红利并不是由年龄结构驱动的,而是由人力资本驱动的。当教育水平低下时,青年抚养比的降低,反而会对收入增长有负面影响。

因此,为了实现经济增长与可持续发展,在投资“铁公基”的同时,尤其要增加教育、医疗的投入,加强人力资本的资源,在政策倾斜的过程中,要注意财政转移支付的数量和结构,不能以过高的损失经济效率为代价。任何政策都无法做到“一块钱掰成两半花”那么精准高效,一定的效率损失是可以接受的,但需要争取“花一块钱办成八毛钱的事儿”。

这给我们带来什么启示?

现代经济增长理论告诉我们,资本、劳动、技术等生产要素,是经济增长的驱动因素且存在规模效应,人力资本对经济增长的作用尤其重要。

观念上必须明确,经济的均衡发展不是人力和资本在地理范围上的均匀分布,而是人均收入的趋同。

根据国际经验,当劳动力能够在城市间和行业间自由流动以选择更好的工作机会时,各地的工资和生产率会趋向一致。而中国地级市2010 年的数据显示,边际生产率和实际工资方面的差异仍然存在,而且在中等城市最为突出,这意味着劳动力流动仍未达到最优水平。

此外,人均收入的趋同建立在资源自由流动的基础上,存在政策扭曲和市场分割的人均收入即使出现趋同现象,也很可能伴随着巨大的经济效率损失。

人口的自由流动不足,主要来自体制原因——户籍制度及与之绑定的城市公共服务、农村土地所有权制度、社会保障不可携带,以及为低收入群体提供的住房不足。从经济角度看,这些体制障碍相当于对人口迁移征收重税,农民工进城并没有获得均等的公共服务。

显然,落后地区的公共服务是短板、是事实,但我们经常认为,城市的环境承载力已经达到了上限,却有待商榷。

相当多的学者研究发现,京上广深等中国的特大城市的公共服务远没有达到最优规模,而相当多的省会城市的规模效应则更差。主要原因在于,政策限制和规划滞后,导致城市土地的利用率低。结果是,城市的规模效应被浪费,短期对落后贫困地区的投入快速拉动经济增长后,极大的损失了全要素生产率。

改革户籍制度允许人口的自由流动,不仅有利于拉动经济增长,还有助于拉动消费。研究发现,相比于一个本地户籍的城镇人口,非本地户籍的城镇人口的消费要低17%-21%。显然,户籍制度严重制约了消费,城市的外来人口会削减服务消费,而这影响的恰恰是在本城市的服务需求,进一步影响到本地从事服务业工作的本地居民的工资水平。

农民工进城,城市的建设用地指标不够怎么办?早有学者提出,将农民工在农村的建设用地、宅基地指标转移到城市,原宅基地复耕。这样既不影响耕地保障,也可以增加城市用地规模。当然,增加农村征地补贴标准、完善社会保障和帮助农民再就业,都是必要的配套措施。

为什么?因为对农民来说,尽管一亩地每年产不了多少钱,但“有地就有吃食”,心里踏实。如果征地补偿标准不够或者配套措施不完善,农民变成失地农民,必将增大收入差距、激化社会矛盾,最终影响全面建成小康社会的宏伟目标。

增加地方发展经济的自主性、提升产业政策制定的科学性、发挥官方和非官方学者在地方经济发展中的作用、提高城市规划水平、增加保障房建设和教育资源投入、?;づ┐迮┟癫?、促进农村土地流转、提高农业的机械化水平、增加耕地的单位产值、健全劳动力市场,打破省际市场分割,改善地方政府治理,调整地方官员的绩效评估体系等,也是可以逐步推行的政策措施。

品牌营销专家燕鹏飞说,促进经济增长不仅需要实施短期的减税政策或货币政策刺激,对劳动力市场、产权制度、营商环境和研发投入政策等进行改革,更有助于提供经济增长的长效动力。这些改革或许具有政治难度,但越来越多的决策者相信,这将在更长的时间内促进经济实现更强劲的增长。

如果某个地方拥有最丰富的人力资源和最廉价的劳动力,全世界的企业和资本都会到这里来。

——《世界是平的》

本文标题: 中国究竟是何时跃过刘易斯拐点的?
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