吴声2018年中6大预测都怎么样了?|新物种爆炸2019

发布时间: 2019-07-24 来源: 新浪财经-自媒体综合 栏目: 娱乐新闻 点击:

吴声2018年中6大预测,现在都怎么样了?|新物种爆炸2019吴声造物2019年8月4日,751D·PARK北京时尚设计...

吴声2018年中6大预测,现在都怎么样了?|新物种爆炸2019

吴声造物

2019年8月4日,751D·PARK北京时尚设计广场79罐,‘新物种爆炸·吴声商业方法发布2019’如约将至。

与其预测,不如进化。用户认知和技术应用加速迭代,交互推动的商业进化,不是结构优化而是范式转移。唯有系统性更新的商业思维,方能继续深入‘不可抵达之处’。

在‘新物种爆炸·吴声商业方法发布2019’揭幕前1个月内,《吴声造物》从不同层面对去年‘新物种爆炸’相关内容,以及吴声过去1年新思考,进行回顾总结。

· 文 | 场景实验室

2018年8月5日,‘新物种爆炸’的第2年,场景实验室创始人吴声在他的3小时独立演讲中,提出了视角独特的6大预测——

2.5次元,家庭会员,订阅万物,空间重生,知识新零售,透明化机遇。

站在1年后的今天,回顾吴声在2018年的这些预测,哪些趋势已从进行时变为完成时,哪些领域又悄然生长出新物种?那些被吴声解读的案例,在这1年又发生了何种进化?

01

2.5次元:用户参与式的品牌成长

2018年,吴声围绕2.5次元的预测提出‘品牌成长都是人格养成’,并指出YouTube、Instagram、Pinterest、小红书、抖音等,将从个人社交阵地成为品牌养成阵地,这依赖于大量细分圈层的网红博主。

我们确实清晰地看到Instagram、Twitter 、微信、抖音、快手、小红书等社交平台,正加速品牌塑造,实现更快速度的D2C,成就更多元的人格化品牌。

?卡戴珊小妹Kylie Jenner

图/forbes

Kylie Jenner2018年被《福布斯》评为‘美国最年轻的的白手起家亿万富翁’,在Instagram坐拥上亿粉丝,单条广告价值超100万美元。她在正式创业3年后,就建立起属于自己的价值9 亿美元的商业帝国。

?青年偶像Billie Eilish

17岁的Billie Eilish是生于美国加利福尼亚的歌手和作曲家,不仅凭借美剧《十三个原因》OST《Bored》的空灵唱腔掳获受众,还因强烈个人着装风格而在 Instagram 上一年暴涨700多万粉丝。她被媒体称为是2019年‘年度青少年’,是新一代流行音乐群体的第一个入侵者。 

?抖音‘口红一哥’李佳琦

2个月抖音涨粉超400万,获赞超9630w,月入六位数,成为继papi酱、张大奕、薇娅后,中国网红史上的又一个标签式人物。2018年‘双11’,李佳琪5分钟卖掉1.5万支口红,5个半小时‘带货’销售额353万,刷新直播界的神话。

李佳琦抖音主页。图/抖音页面

?Vlogger欧阳娜娜

在暂别娱乐圈进入伯克利开始自己的留学生活后,欧阳娜娜启动了身为Vlogger的‘副业’,上线后迅速达到单集1000多万的播放量,微博话题#娜娜的Vlog#阅读量达10.3亿。

随之而来的是2019全民Vlog风潮,抖音推出‘Vlog10亿流量扶持计划’,百度旗下好看视频宣布进军Vlog,B站上线‘Vlog星计划’……Vlog已经成为一种记录生活、表达自我的全新潮流方式。

‘人设时代’已然过去,更真实的人格养成正在成为这个时代个体的崛起机会。抖音、快手、小红书、Vlog,都在呈现一种越真实越迷恋、越旁观越自省的2.5次元常态。

  02

家庭会员:AIoT时代家庭关系的数据联系

2018年‘新物种爆炸’上,吴声指出‘家庭ID是理性算法与感性生活的结合体’。家庭关系基于数据被联系起来,智能家居作为真实的触点和入口,推动围绕智慧家庭场景的要素重构和产业变革。

这一年里,智能家居领域的竞争日趋白热化,尤其是以电视为核心的大家电,作为家庭场景的连接和体验中枢,成为竞争的重点品类。突出的表现是,家庭流媒体服务在全球范围内的整体性增长,据统计订购流媒体服务的北欧家庭数量较去年增加16%;在美国,OTT已成为主流视频内容渠道,使用时长远超传统有线电视。

根据中国电信发布的《智慧家庭白皮书》,截至2019年5月其已拥有1.7亿家庭宽带用户、8000万智能家庭网关用户、1.27亿IPTV用户、8000万4K机顶盒用户、4000万家庭云用户,并提供了超4000万次的智能组网服务。随着5G技术的应用深入,智慧家庭正在形成一个真切的万亿级市场。

?海尔智慧家庭

6月25日,青岛海尔宣布更名‘海尔智家’,首批推出‘5+7+N’全场景方案,即面向智慧客厅、智慧卧室、智慧浴室、智慧厨房、智慧阳台5大家庭物理空间,建立全屋空气、全屋用水、全屋洗护等7大全屋智慧生活解决方案,为用户提供N种智慧生活自由组合的可能。

此外,海尔智家和TOP品牌公寓中的49家达成战略合作,与自如、蛋壳、魔方等品牌公寓均建设了智慧公寓。除在全国落地76个智慧体验中心外,还有193个智慧项目、151个智慧社区。

图/海尔网站

近乎同时间,三星SmartThings系列智能家居产品线推出多款新品,以进一步拓展智能家居产品布局;

AWE2019中国家电博览会期间,华为宣布‘全场景智慧化战略升级’,全面推动家电产业升级。目前华为HiLink智能家居生态已覆盖500多款智能硬件产品,触达用户超3亿,连接4000万户家庭。

根据国际数据公司IDC发布的报告,今年Q1全球智能家居设备出货量为1.686亿台,同比增长37%,预计2019年全年全球智能家居设备出货量将达8.407亿台,2023年将增至14.6亿台。

?小米智能家居

图/小米IoT网站

2019年初,小米CEO雷军宣布启动‘小米未来五年核心战略’——‘手机+AIoT’双引擎战略;5月,小米正式成立大家电事业部,综合下来不难看出小米‘下半场’重心:智能家居。

根据小米5月发布的Q1财报,小米IoT平台已连接IoT设备数达到1.71亿台(不包括智能手机和笔记本电脑),环比增长13.7%,人工智能助理‘小爱同学’3月份月活用户超4550万,同比增长247.2%。 

?Yandex

Yandex可以算作亚马逊在俄罗斯的忠实追随者。其今年宣布将AI语音助手Alice与各种智能家居产品进行整合,包括飞利浦、小米、雷德蒙德和三星等知名公司。这些合作伙伴在多个设备集成Alice的语音功能,包括电灯、恒温器、电视、咖啡机等。这意味着用户可以通过手机应用程序或者智能音箱呼叫Alice,让这款智能助理完成打开电视等操作。

  03

订阅万物:订阅机制形成新用户关系

2018年中吴声指出,‘订阅形成的商业模式日益多元化,汽车信息流、商品信息流、服务信息流、游戏信息流,都在充分Made in NOW’。而全球范围内,订阅机制在今年呈现出更加深化的态势。

?Netflix

图/Netflix网站

2018年推出了近1500小时的原创剧集、电影等作品,发布超过850个节目。Netflix以112项提名登顶2018艾美奖提名榜首,成为整个好莱坞对原创内容投入力度最大的制片公司——全年共投入 80 亿美元;Netflix2019Q1财报显示,新增付费用户960万,同比增长16%,其已拥有超1.489亿付费流媒体会员,大部分增长(Q1净增长790万)发生在美国之外。

?HBO

跻身美国OTT订阅服务前五,HBO最近3年订阅人数持续增加,利润达60亿美元超过Netflix;HBO剧集《切尔诺贝利》平均每集观看人次已经达800万,在IMDb上的均分达9.7,成为IMDb评分最高的剧集/电视节目;

?亚马逊

2019年拟投入70亿美元发力视频和音乐内容。今年4月,亚马逊正面对抗Spotify,在美国推出免费音乐流媒体服务;6月,亚马逊Twitch平台以2500万美元收购Bebo,将推出自有电竞流媒体产品;

国内来看,2018年吴声重点提及云集、爱库存、享物说等案例,都在近一年的时间获得飞速发展,印证了那句‘你所订阅的就是你未来的样子’。

?云集

2019年5月,会员制电商云集登录美国纳斯达克,2018年全年收入130亿元;2019年Q1云集GMV达68亿元,同比增长93.7%;其表示,GMV的增速超收入增速,因为有越来越多品牌选择进驻云集。

2019年初,云集对商品运营的组织架构进行升级,并向第三方开放平台,新增超市和商城两大业务板块;3月,云集与LG生活健康、汉高、环亚集团、蒙牛、伊利、良品铺子、三只松鼠等40余家国内外一线美妆、食品品牌签订战略合作协议;5月云集四周年庆上宣布,云集商城正式上线。

订阅模式从流媒体诞生,形成了全新的用户关系模型和增长能力模型。它最初是以付费会员为基础形态,核心是向内的超级用户筛选和深度运营,并不断围绕订阅用户的权益体系衍生出更多的服务模式,以形成基于订阅关系而非商品交易的增长模式。订阅机制的深入化,还在继续。

04

空间重生:时间化与社交化

在关于空间重生的预测中,吴声核心强调了‘体验店的复活’,提到纽约布鲁克的A/D/O、北京国贸共享际、上海长宁来福士言几又,以及曼谷Central Embassy的Siwlai。时间化与社交化是这一轮体验店模式创新的内核——‘空间是人际关系与功能混合,空间是复合内容与发现机制?!?/p>

?言几又

言盐问答空间。图/言几又

2019年4月,言几又厦门万象城旗舰店开业——言几又与知乎联合打造‘言盐问答空间’,推出联名会员体系,把前者传达生活可能的品牌理念和后者的知识问答属性相融合,成为一种新的内容交互场景体验典范。

?共享际

2019年5月,共享际旗下项目‘打磨场·共享际’获得意大利A‘Design Award金奖,将老胡同文化与新生活方式融合的设计,以民宿+共享办公+网红咖啡的方式,吸引城市年轻群体入驻。

在过去一年中,数字化空间在新零售商业模式中的价值同样日益凸显:

?M·A·C淮海路旗舰店

2019年1月,M·A·C魅可全国首家新零售潮店M·A·C淮海819开幕,突破传统美妆店铺概念,将自助式购物、黑科技互动、不定期主题活动与艺术策展融为一体。

图/M·A·C公众号

?北京丰台科技园万达广场

2019年5月,腾讯智慧零售和万达联手打造的全国第一个‘智慧广场’试点落地北京丰台科技园万达广场。作为集合强势IP融合、多种智能互动设备和底层数据分析能力的‘商场数字化’的首次尝试,人脸识别+智能推荐、会员优惠券、人脸支付‘无感停车’解决方案等都给消费者带来全新的购物体验。

  05

知识新零售:直播杠杆、场景驱动、流量融合

在2018年‘新物种爆炸’吴声判断,‘以焦虑治愈、头部收割、音频破局为核心的知识付费上半场结束了,但是下半场才刚刚开始?!彼赋?,‘直播杠杆、场景驱动、流量融合就是知识新零售的人、货、场三要素?!?/p>

?得到App这一年

‘知识搜索引擎’:为了解决互联网信息搜索中无法被查找的‘书’的问题,得到2019春季知识发布会上,发布了得到电子书产品面向未来的全新升级,强化其App搜索功能,支持电子书的全文搜索,以及任意电子书可以任意位置免费试读10%,打通数字知识世界的壁垒。

得到大学:每期3个月,包括线上学习48堂课,线下10个周末组织进行同学间的面对面讨论与分享。面向各行各业的终身学习者,传授认识世界、解决问题的‘多元思维模型’。2019的春季学期,得到大学的线下校区已经开到了北京、上海、广州、深圳、杭州、成都六个城市。新一期的夏季招生报名6月结束,2019全年预计会招收5000人。

图/得到App

例会直播:每周二晚8点,得到创始人罗振宇、脱不花、快刀青衣会通过直播的方式跟全体同事及用户开例会。这个惯例得到从2016年坚持至今,3年的时间一直在坚持输出价值观和影响力。

2018‘新物种爆炸’吴声曾指出,‘得到例会直播是一个被严重低估的形态?!?019年5月,得到举办‘三周年开放日’派对,得到16位老师与员工举行为期7个半小时的主题演讲,在复盘、‘汇报’得到变化的同时,也是一次能量密集、效果突出的品牌展示。

这一年,得到App完成着自身直播杠杆、场景驱动、流量融合也即‘知识新零售’三要素的系统更新。

?吴晓波频道

2018年12月吴晓波频道App上线,目前已拥有包括财富、职场、家庭、见识4个门类的近百门课程,可在App中免费收听财经日日评、脑洞·房产篇的音频节目。吴晓波频道在完成三级会员的流量融合后,开始着手建设和沉淀更精准定位中产阶级的知识付费模式。

?凯叔讲故事

在深入儿童睡前场景获得巨大成功后,由‘凯叔’延展出新的IP,如凯糊涂、宝拉、肚大嘟、麦小麦、艾小坡等新IP形象;而基于‘凯叔讲故事’主IP,拓展如儿童教育、凯叔童书、衍生硬件、凯叔造物、凯叔优选等业务形态。

?VIPKID

2018年VIPKID推出‘V+战略’,开始打造基于英语核心的6个不同形态产品:VIPKID(4-15岁外教1V1)、Lingo Bus(在线中文学习)、自由星球(0-4岁陪伴式英语)、跟大熊玩英语(3-6岁英语启蒙)、SayABC(5-12岁1V4小班)、VIP蜂校(9-15岁双师同屏大班)。

2019年3月,VIPKID拓展品类上线‘噜啦数学’,主要面向5-10岁儿童,定位于在线一对四互动思维数学课程。 

2018‘新物种爆炸’上吴声还指出:‘各种流量平台和巨头会纷纷布局读书会’。而近一年来可以看到的是:华为成立‘华为阅读·DigiX读书会’;当当联合创始人李国庆再创业,成立‘早晚读书’;百度网盘2018年正式跨入内容付费大门,在底部栏目新增‘发现’频道……全新的读书会模式在崛起。

06

透明化机遇:对用户的信息透明推动商业可持续

在关于‘透明化机遇’的预测中吴声提到‘透明价值观是商业可持续的根基’。

他指出瑞幸咖啡在可视化、透明化、永久透明、数字化方面的不断优化,门店是体验店也是外卖的起点,还是未来的智慧门店。

‘以瑞幸咖啡为代表的数字咖啡,真正以供应链透明和价值链透明,坚决的灵活、敏捷、迭代,更加的以对于用户价值的一种洞察为它全部逻辑的起点所形成的一种柔软的能力,才是这个时代所需要的咖啡系列?!?/p>

2019年5月,瑞幸登陆美国纽交所,缔造18个月上市的速度神话;在其计划中,2019年年底瑞幸咖啡门店数量将超4500家,2021年的门店数量将达到1万家。

?贝壳找房

贝壳找房颠覆传统房产中介长期以来的‘信息不对称’,以完全的信息透明成为了全新的协作效率新物种。定位‘新居住时代’的战略布局,贝壳找房计划到2021年,平台连接服务者扩增5倍达到100万人,成为中国房产中介领域第一个月活跃用户过亿的线上平台。

结语

站在2019年下半年的开始,吴声2018年中的一句论述显得愈发确切:‘失去养成,失去很多,失去感受,失去一切?!?/p>

回看过去近一年的变化,互联网寒冬的持续蔓延、5G的到来、中美贸易博弈白热化......都加剧了商业环境的动荡与不确定性。马太效应与长尾效应并存,黑天鹅和灰犀牛频出,又或许正如吴声往昔所言:‘商业自有其基本规律,我们要回到创造用户价值的原点’。

与其预测,不如进化。在愈加纷乱与复杂的2019年里,一起找寻新技术推动下的新商业趋势,探索和定义‘冷静市场’下的‘热度场景’。

 

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